The vertical software premium over horizontal stands at +55% on EV/Revenue (LTM, median) and +66% on EV/EBITDA — up 8 and 12 points versus May. On a forward (NTM) basis the revenue premium is ~+58%, up from +44% at the end of Q1.
What moved
- Vertical software's EV/Revenue premium sits at +55% (LTM, median), up 8 points month-over-month, re-widening after May's pullback from the +86% April peak.
- The EV/EBITDA premium widened to +66% — vertical's margin edge is repricing harder than its revenue edge.
- On a forward (NTM) basis the premium is ~+58% on revenue, up from +44% at Q1 as horizontal estimates were cut faster.
What it means
- We believe the market keeps pricing AI-substitution risk into undifferentiated horizontal software while paying up for domain-specific systems.
- May's pullback from the April spike reversed in June — a re-widening within the established regime, with the forward spread at the wide end of its range.
The Vertical Premium Monitor — June 2026. Source: S&P Capital IQ; as of June 30, 2026.
